Long Crude In The Final Hour
Gold? Ahhhh, a waste of time right now.
On to crude!
We started the day having been up 13 out of the last 14 days, and 10 days in a row. From the lows 14 days ago, crude oil is up approximately $14 / barrel. So, I’m starting the day somewhat cautious because I know at some point the tsunami of profit taking is going to come in and cause some disruptions.
The million dollar question is when; early or late? As I stated over on my other post, in bull markets, early breaks can be bought, late breaks can’t.
We got our first good buy signal from “Vegas Crude Oil Trader” at about 108.54 off the 108.24 low early in the morning. With the high being put in much earlier in Asia at 109.68, the range was then 144. I didn’t take this trade because I wanted the second break at a higher range. “Sorry vegas, no can do!”
In a volatile market like crude, which is volatile to say the least, I am always mindful of the range for the day. It is a major component of my decision to buy/sell.
By late morning, crude had rallied up past 109.00, and was looking like it wanted to make a new high. The key here on a range of 144 is whether or not the market can retrace past the fib ratio of 0.618% off the low. That would be 89 off the low, so you are looking at a very pivotal point of 109.13 [bid]. If it can penetrate that level, the market has a shot of hitting a new high.
I bought at 109.18. I went with a low volume because I wanted the flexibility to add to the position if it was the correct one and we were in fact going to hit a new high. I want all my trades to become “free trades” and allow them to “run”.
The market bolted through the 109.20 level and spent a minute or two above 109.20 before going 109.26 bid. At that point, the market’s next price was 109.21 bid, a drop of 5 ticks. I knew at this instant, the breakthrough through the fib ratio level was a trap. I exited the trade for a few pennies of profit at 109.21.
The very next 1 minute candlestick and the market started lower in earnest.
Now, the question is; when does the low get put in and how deep? If it can come in early afternoon, there is a chance of a good bounce back. If it comes late look out below.
“How does a $1.25 / barrel break in 23 minutes in the last hour of trading sound?”
So, there you go, the range is $2.43 for the day. Like I said, somehow, someway it happens. If it had been on the upside, I would have hit it. Tomorrows another day.
Up on the right hand side of the website are the download links for “Vegas Crude Oil Trader”. It’s totally free folks, what else do you want from me?
Have a good day everyone.
-vegas
