IT’S A HOLIDAY AFFAIR

                                     Err You Watch It, I’m Busy

No trading today because the markets are basically closed for the Easter Holiday. Yes, they are “officially” open, but $5 - $6 spreads don’t say “open” to me.

A miss on the NFP report has gold slightly higher, but I wouldn’t read too much into the 2 people who traded into the goofy spread as a basis. We’ll see what happens on Monday.

Until then, have an enjoyable Easter weekend everyone.

-vegas

THE WAITING GAME

                        If You Traded Today Did You Feel Like This?

What do you want me to do in a $13 range that had all the elements of the FWD [Flying Wedge of Death]?

We were looking to buy below 1619, but the market never got there. Never lower at all during the day except for a brief mystery tick that set the low at 1619.59 [bid]. Otherwise, just brief spurts of activity when crude got excited.

So, we wait. Frustrating to just sit here, but that’s what the algo calls for, so that’s what we do.

Crude oil got excited today and had a small reversal on news that Egypt fired a missile into Israel: still only had a 201 tick range though. This market is starting to feel manipulated as well; and why not since equities [ES], gold, and silver are already there?

I’m putting the finishing touches on the new algorithm document that will be available Sunday night sometime. I’m very happy with the changes, and if the market had cooperated today with just a few bucks more to the downside, we would have had a very nice day. If I had followed the algo using the old dynamic, we would have gotten chopped up pretty good. Suddenly, waiting doesn’t seem so bad.

Tomorrow is NFP Friday, so expect the usual fireworks at 7:30 A.M.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

A NEW LOOK AND VISION

                       Sometimes You Just Have To Look Smarter

As I stated on my other post, the algorithm has just gone through a major revision.

I have not been satisfied with the algorithm trading results since the start of 2012. Things have been gnawing on me since the first week of January. Although I have finished the work and have implemented the changes, I have not finished the documentation. That should be available by Monday [maybe Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest].

Preservation of capital is always our first priority. Having said that though, we need stronger profitable trades; and that has definitely been factored into the major revision.

Starting tomorrow [tonight], I will trade based on the revisions I have made. I think you will see a big difference going forward.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

FWD FED EDITION

                                      Pretty Much Sums It Up

Until the Fed minutes were released, unleashing a $40 downdraft within 20 minutes in gold, we had another FWD [Flying Wedge of Death]; new high, then a new low, followed by a new high, then another new low. Oh yea, then the gold bars went off the cliff.

The bad news: we got caught playing the range today and stopped out twice with a loss.

The good news: our volume was light so the dollar amount lost was relatively small.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t like paper cuts either, but it beats getting clobbered by double digits. So far, in the last 3 – 5 weeks, we have had [including today] 5 FWD’s. In the entire year of 2011 I remember 2 days with this type of trading. It happens and we deal with it.

Crude oil put in a relatively quiet day with only a 156 tick range, but also had the FWD. Nasty trading action with no follow through from yesterday’s big reversal day. It’s hard to rally crude when gold is getting crushed. I still think the market has rallies in it and will be hard to really break to the downside.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

KAMIKAZE TRADING

                              How’d That Work Out Last Time?

For 16 hours the gold market drifted lower in a sloppy, chop-chop pattern; then 55 minutes of straight up [1668 to about 1682] before sideways to lower the rest of the day. Good luck with this.

I got long and got shaken out on 2 mystery ticks. The second I’m out it’s $1.50 higher and never looked back. Whoop-de-whoop for a couple of bucks. Once the 55 minute long love fest was over, that was it for gold: nothing but drift and shaking out some longs from earlier in the day. Treacherous trading at it’s best on display.

Crude oil had a big reversal day of 300+ ticks. Let’s hope this psycho market can keep the range going forward. After a shakeout below 104 last week, the market is right back in the 104 – 108 range it has been in for 5 weeks.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas