And We All Want To Be Happy
Since the Spanish bailout was announced 2 Sunday’s ago,
EURJPY has been capped in the range of
98.70 - 100.90. Today was the 6th day in a row of being
“inside” this range. It is not at all common to be locked into this type of
arrangement, especially with all the news of the last 8 days. What we have seen
is gap straight up, followed by straight down turn-on-a-dime, rinse and repeat.
We have been through 2 large gap up openings on Sunday,
followed in the European session of selling. Gap openings in general skew the
algorithm, and make trading difficult. Add to that the large spreads usually
seen at the start of the Asian session, and you have a scenario for sitting on
the sidelines.
We did get a sell signal in Asia,
but I’m not taking any signal where the spread is 8-10 pips versus the normal 2
½ - 3 pips. We also got some buy signals today, but after the first one fizzled
and left us with a few pennies of profit before going lower, I ignored the
subsequent signals.
If I had followed every one, I probably could have added a
few more pennies, but I would have to have been very nimble. Outside of Asia, there were no other sell signals for the day for us
to get short.
In general, nothing has been solved in Europe; in fact
considering Spain and Italy it is
getting worse. Unless Germany
agrees to something not in the equation at present, I can’t see the Euro
sustaining any rally. With “risk” generally off, it makes it difficult for
USDJPY to rally as well [Yen weakening]. So, I prefer selling the rallies with
an algorithm sell signal.
It’s also “be careful week” because of the Fed meeting on
Tuesday and Wednesday, with an announcement around Noontime on Wednesday with
their easing plans. Of course, news out of Greece,
Spain, and Italy will
influence prices as we move through the week.
While I would have preferred some better trade opportunities
today, what we got today was sure better than Friday. I still haven’t quite
gotten over the gold debacle, and the absolute insanity that rules that market
now.
The only other time in my entire 35 year trading career that
things got that stupid, in such a short period of time, was in the crash of
’87. Let it be another 25 years before the next one shows up.
So, whoop-de-whoop, we made a few pennies today.
Ending NAV: 0.8968
Have a good day everyone.
-vegas
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