Friday, April 20, 2012

I TRIED TO STAY AWAKE


                          The Definitive Opinion On Gold Today

“Oyyyyyy.”

I can’t remember the last non-Holiday trading day that had a smaller daily range. The algorithm had no signals today so we didn’t trade. In short, it was one of the worst trading days [in terms of action and range] I have seen in a long, long time. In the overnight Asian and European sessions there were times I thought the trading platform was down; forget even getting outside the bid and offer, there were minutes the quote never changed.

When the U.S. session got underway around 7:20 A.M. Chicago time, there was a little flurry of trade that lifted prices a couple of bucks, but that was it. A dealer induced smack down of price a few minutes later put a chill on the market.

Bulls tried again an hour later but got the same result.

There isn’t anything I can do when gold has an $8 range for the day, except maybe lose money. You can’t trade and expect this kind of range to hold; take 1,000 trading days and maybe 2 are like this. Obviously, the algorithm gave no signals in gold today and rightly so; this was a mess. And lest you think some other market provided any opportunity, guess again; EURJPY and AUDUSD had tight ranges as well.

Just chalk it up to one of those Friday’s when nobody really cared.

Below are the daily cycle charts. [Daily charts at 1:30 P.M. Chicago time]

XAUUSD


I didn’t fill in the colored box because we don’t know yet what the final outcome of the count is going to be. Either today was day 6 in a down cycle [maybe 8 days] or the down cycle ended yesterday [Thursday] and this was day 2 in an up cycle [maybe 3 or 5 days]. In any event, we will need to see what happens next week in order to get the correct count.

EURJPY


It looks like today was day 8 in an up cycle. I put the white box in, but if we get a rally on Monday, I’ll redo the box.

AUDUSD


Here, like EURJPY, it looks as though AUD has finished an 8 day up cycle. I put the box in, but we’ll have to wait and see what happens next week.

Have a good weekend everyone.

-vegas

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