MAPPING THE MARKETS

                                     Knowing Where You’re At

We got the anticipated Friday profit taking today, and then after 12 Noon gold went into its “psychotic teenage girl” mode for the rest of the day. Say hello to your $28 range. It  was pretty tight affair into the U.S. session, and then came the dealer induced chop we all know and love; no matter what you do they’re gonna clip you at least $0.30 getting in and out.

We got long down near the first set of lows and scalped it for a few bucks; for an anticipated chop-chop Friday.  I’ll take it. Last thing I want is to get in something heading for the close with no where to go. Long or short makes no difference; trouble doesn’t care.

Below are the current cycle daily charts. Yellow boxes are down and white boxes are up.

XAUUSD

It looks like today was day 8 in the 8 day up cycle, and the start of day 1 in a new cycle [probably 3 day] down. We’ll have to see what happens on Monday to see whether or not the down move is continued, but it looks like we got a couple of days of weakness coming up early next week. With today’s late move down, the daily chart doesn’t look all that good with a bearish engulfing pattern.

EURJPY

I’m hoping today wasn’t day 3 of the 3 day up cycle and that we are in day 1 of starting a new down cycle. I really didn’t want to open a position on “square up” Friday, but the action today in EURJPY doesn’t look like it is squaring up anything except going down. It looks like it is in sync with XAUUSD as far as going down. Monday will give us some clues.

AUDUSD

AUD looks like it is in day 2 of a 3 day up cycle. We'll see next week.

Have a good weekend everyone.

-vegas

THE MARKET NEEDS DECAF

                                    Sometimes He Gets Excited

The algorithm missed a great buy today by about $1.50. We still got long and made a few pennies, but like I said on my other post, the ebb and flow of the market isn’t here anymore; what we are left with is a one-way freight train over 30 – 60 minutes most of the time since the start of 2012.

When I can’t get the prices I want on a specific buy/sell signal I’ll be doing smaller volume; this minimizes risk. We are only in day 3 of the revised algo and really haven’t had a buy signal yet. Obviously, that will change.

Tomorrow, and going forward every Friday, I’ll be posting the daily charts with cycle overlay for the 3 markets we are trading now with some comments; XAUUSD [gold]. AUDUSD [Australian dollar], and EURJPY [Euro priced in Yen]. This will keep you current on the cycles I’m looking at and help you determine exactly where we are at in each market.

Tomorrow is Friday, and if we can get a profit taking break overnight in early Asia or Europe I’ll be getting long for a Friday rally into the weekend. We’ll see what happens.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

ZOMBIE MARKET

                                     Especially The Gold Ones

“Oyyyyyyyyy”.

It’s hard to find words for a market that wanders aimlessly for 24 hours and puts in the lowest day’s non-Holiday range in memory.

However, the algorithm did its job perfectly today; it kept me out of this mess. I know every once in a while markets have to do this, but 2016 is more preferable than now. What is amazing is that in the last 10 trading days, 7 have had daily ranges well below $20; the other 3 were $31, $35, and $42; go figure.

All we needed today was a new low somewhere in the mix and we would have had another FWD [Flying Wedge of Death].

Granted, zombies got issues, but they don’t have to deal with this.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

GOLD GOES SPASTIC

                                           Hold Your Breathe

If you don’t like the price of gold, wait 5 seconds, and it could be + or - $5 from where it was. This kind of action is what you get with price suppression; when it’s over the demand shows up and BOOM!

I came into the day looking for a top in Asia due to the fact that we are in day 5 of the up cycle. The algorithm nailed it; I blew it with too tight a stop. I got short later and covered when the market hit the lower aqua line. So, all told, made a few pennies but should have done better. The good news, though, is that the algorithm performed very well.

HotForex has instituted commissions on there CFD’s; $2 per round turn per 1 CFD. What this does, in effect, is dramatically raise the cost [spread] of doing business in the stock index and oil CFD’s. So, for example, the SP500 now has an effective spread of 2.50 index points, the Dow30 6 points, and crude oil $0.07. These are terrible spreads, wholly uncompetitive in the marketplace that is out there, but for now they won’t change their policy. As I told them, no way am I trading the oil and stock indices markets with these spreads.

So, along with gold, time to take another look at AUDUSD and possibly EURJPY as well. Tight spreads on both so they look attractive with the kind of ranges they can put in. I'll be commenting on them when appropriate

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

ANOTHER HOLIDAY MARKET

                                           Yea, Where Is Gold?

The only 4 day weekend of the year [as far as market trading is concerned] finally has passed. Markets in Asia and Europe closed for Easter Holiday, which meant the U.S. almost was guaranteed to be slow and uneventful today.

Not to disappoint, gold had a “K-Mart special” range today [$12.99] and a few bucks either way and it would have been another FWD special. Crude oil a slow mess as well.

I have finished the updated algorithm and we can finally get back to trading starting tonight. If you don’t have a copy, simply go to http://vegasxau.blogspot.com and download the manual and appropriate mq4 file and install.

I’ll be commenting on gold tomorrow. Have a good day everyone.

-vegas